Dissimulation consciente

par la politique et le militaire:

Meurtre systématique de la population civile

Les photos, publiées maintenant, d’un massacre d’enfants afghans dans la province de Helmand de l’année passée et d’un ­massacre dans le district de Garmsee bouleversent l’opinion publique.

D’un hélicoptère armé, on chasse et tue des enfants d’un village afghan. On ne peut rester sourd aux cris des mères désespérées devant l’événement incompréhensible.

(cf. le DVD «Le ­massacre des enfants à Helmand», M.D. Miraki, et le rapport juxtaposé de Matiullah Minapal et d’Aziz ­Ahmad Tassal).

Personne ne peut dire que les responsables de l’armée n’aient pas eu connaissance d’un tel massacre d’enfants innocents (et ils ­doivent en prendre connaissance!). Tous les indices (rapports et témoignages oculaires) montrent que ce massacre n’est pas un cas isolé et qu’un tel procédé est toléré par la direction militaire, voire même approuvé.

Aujourd’hui, c’est encore par hasard que des nouvelles des événements réels par­viennent des territoires de l’Afghanistan du Sud et de l’Est, qui sont isolés de façon hermétique du public par les forces belligérantes.

Les nouvelles, qui sont répandues «normalement» aux Etats-Unis et en Europe, sont censurées et arrangées par les officines de presse militaires américaines responsables (par exemple Fort Bragg).

Le peu de rapports qui passent quand même la censure sont bouleversants. Massacres de civils, viols, abus sexuels de mineurs et meurtres insensés.

Les belles paroles venant des autorités officielles comme «hôpitaux, démocratie et reconstruction» donnent l’impression de la pire moquerie.

Les parallèles avec la guerre du Vietnam sont de plus en plus fatals. Cette guerre-là s’était également dirigée de facto contre la population civile.

Aux yeux du soldat, les habitants du Vietnam étaient tous des alliés du Vietcong ennemi. Ainsi le militaire justifiait les atrocités exercées contre la population du pays.

Les crimes de guerre ­furent ignorés et tolérés – ou même exigés – par la direction de l’armée.

Les ressemblances entre le Vietnam et l’Afghanistan sont alarmantes. (cf. Bernd Greiner, «Krieg ohne Fronten. Die USA in Vietnam», ISBN 978-3-936096-80-4).

L’escalade militaire en progression en Afghanistan est décrite par l’expert allemand sur l’Afghanistan Christoph R. Hörstel («Sprengsatz Afghanistan. Die Bundeswehr in tödlicher Mission», ISBN 978-3-426-78116-6).

 Au lieu de la reconstruction promise, les combats s’intensifient partout et l’emploi d’armes est plus massif.

L’alliance de guerre sous la direction des Etats-Unis mène une guerre dépourvue d’un minimum de respect devant tout être humain. L’emploi gigantesque de différentes armes dépasse toute imagination.

Déjà en 2002 (!), Helen Caldicott a décrit l’arsenal de terreur utilisé en Afghanistan («Atomgefahr USA. Die nukleare Aufrüstung der Supermacht.», ISBN 3-7205-2385-3). A part les armes à sous-munitions, les bombes à l’essence, les armes à l’uranium et les bunker buster, qui frappent tout d’abord la population civile, on «teste» aussi d’autres systèmes d’armes.

Ce sont des armes dont les effets nous sont encore inconnus. Il faut tout de suite arrêter ces crimes de guerre meurtriers. •

Chers lecteurs, chères lectrices,

Vous trouverez ci-dessous le lien vers une documentation vidéo sur le massacre de 27 enfants afghans dans la région de Helmand en Afghanistan qui a été perpétré en été 2007.

Ce document nous a été transmis par le Pr Daud Miraki.

Regardez ce document vidéo et écoutez les cris des mères – ce sont aussi nos enfants …

Et rendez-vous bien compte qu‘il ne s‘agit pas d‘homicides involontaires – quasi­ment par mégarde, lors d‘une attaque contre une cible militaire:

Non, chacun de ces enfants a été pris pour cible individuellement et assassiné à l‘aide de moyens technologiques militaires d‘une précision extrême lors d‘un raid aérien.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-1332529811306781463

Vous pouvez obtenir la documentation et son exposé contenant des informations sur la situation actuelle en Afghanistan sur ­disque DVD auprès de la rédaction d’Horizons et débats.

Mardi 19 Février 2008

http://www.horizons-et-debats.ch

Iranian rocket transmits data to Earth

19/ 02/ 2008

TEHRAN, February 17 (RIA Novosti) – A sounding rocket launched by Iran on February 4 as a preliminary step toward sending its first research satellite into orbit has transmitted data back to the country, national media said on Sunday.

Scientific information was sent back to Iran from an orbit of 200-250 km (125-155 miles) above the Earth, Iranian media cited Mehran Mirshams, an Iran Aerospace Association official, as saying.

Iran’s state-run television had reported at the beginning of the month that Iranian scientists had built the Omid (Hope) research satellite under a project that took 10 years to complete. The satellite may be launched by March 2009.

“We need to have an active and influential presence in space,” said President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who attended the February 4 rocket launch.

A sounding rocket, also called a research rocket, is an instrument-carrying craft designed to take measurements and perform scientific experiments during its sub-orbital flight.

Iranian media gave no details about the rocket, called Kavoshgar-1, but some experts believe it could be a variant of the Shahab-3 missile, which has a range of up to 2,000 kilometers (about 1,200 miles).

Both Russia and the West reacted warily to the space program development.

“Any progress in the development of this long-range ballistic missile weaponry certainly worries us and others,” said Alexander Losyukov, a Russian deputy foreign minister, on February 6.

The White House issued a statement on the day of the Iranian launch calling it an “unfortunate” development.

“It’s unfortunate Iran continues to test ballistic missiles. This regime continues to take steps that only further isolate it and the Iranian people from the international community,” White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe said.

“We do not approve of Iran’s constant demonstration of its intention to develop its missile sector, and to continue uranium enrichment,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.

However, he said that “from the standpoint of international law such actions are not forbidden.”

Iran later refuted that the rocket launch possessed a military nature, and said it was designed to obtain meteorological data.

“We hope that these rockets will enable us to receive more reliable data about climate change,” the Islamic republic’s ambassador to Moscow, Gholamreza Ansari, told a news conference at RIA Novosti on February 8.

Iran is currently involved in a long-running dispute with the West over its controversial uranium enrichment program, with two sets of UN sanctions against Tehran in effect. The U.S. and its allies fear that its space and nuclear programs may both serve as a cover for the development of nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missiles.

http://en.rian.ru/world/20080217/99437322.html
 

Turkey plans to invade northern Iraq

Feb. 19, 2008 

ANKARA, Turkey, — The Turkish military said it is setting the ground work for a large-scale ground invasion into northern Iraq targeting the Kurdistan Workers’ Party.

The military said the ground operation is the final strike against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, known by its Kurdish language initials of PKK. The operation follows airstrikes on the group in late 2007 and military officials said the operation is scheduled for mid-March, the English language Turkish daily, Today’s Zaman said Monday.

Military sources told the newspaper that the operation would be on two fronts; one along the Turkish border with Iraq and one inside Turkey in its southeastern provinces.

Israel gave the Turkish military unmanned surveillance drones that military officials said will provide key intelligence about PKK activity.

The Turkish military deployed about 50,000 troops along the border with Iraq and the newspaper said military officials will keep the same amount of troops in the region for the March operations.

The PKK is listed as a terrorist organization by the U.S. State Department.

http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/Top_News/2008/02/18/turkey_plans_to_invade_northern_iraq/9268/

Turkey readies for ground operation

The Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) is preparing for a comprehensive ground operation into northern Iraq against the terrorist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) organization, expected to take place in spring.

The TSK is currently developing its strategy for the operation, which will most likely be launched in the middle of March. The ground operation is planned to be the final strike against the terrorist organization. It will follow upon a series of aerial attacks that have seriously disrupted the organization, bringing it to the brink of collapse. Reports indicate that communications between PKK leaders was seriously disrupted by the operations and that the distrust that emerged following the severing of communications has brought the organization to the edge of dissolution. The TSK has set up military bases at high elevations in the Cudi, Gabar, Küpeli, Tanin and Kato mountains, strategic points used by the PKK militants for infiltration into Turkey. The bases will include helicopter landing facilities, thermal cameras and artillery equipment.

TSK Special Forces based in Bolu, Kayseri, Isparta and Manisa have been trained for the purpose of destroying the remaining PKK presence in northern Iraq. The Land Forces Command is currently working to determine the number and state of armored vehicles, trucks, trailers, mobile medical units and mobile kitchens in the transportation units. A thorough review is being undertaken to check the state of equipment, clothing and food supplies of the units based in the region.

The spring operations will coincide with the withdrawal of the units that carried out operations in the winter and the deployment of replacement units. Military sources indicate that the spring operation will be carried out in two separate regions, one along Turkey’s borders with Iran and Iraq and one inside Turkey, near the provinces of Tunceli, Bingöl, Siirt and Diyarbakır.

The military units that will take part in the spring operation are being picked by the authorities at the Land Forces Command and Gendarmerie Command. The number of training sessions for the command units based in Bolu, Kayseri, Isparta and Manisa has been increased in preparation for the ground operation in spring. Two large military units from Bolu have been deployed to the region. The Land Forces Command is currently working to determine the quantity of military equipment proper for use in the operation.

Turkey will also reportedly use unmanned Heron surveillance airplanes, which will be provided by Israel. These will play an indispensable role in the combat against terrorist activity. The Heron will be used to screen and monitor a large area, including northern Iraq and the Gabar, Cudi, Küpeli, Kato, Yazlıca and Tanin mountains.

These will play an indispensable role in the combat against terrorist activity. The Heron will be used to screen and monitor a large area, including northern Iraq and the Gabar, Cudi, Küpeli, Kato, Yazlıca and Tanin mountains. The intelligence thus gathered will be swiftly evaluated and used in military strikes.

The TSK had previously deployed 50,000 troops in the border region before the cross-border operation on Dec. 16, when Turkish warplanes began pounding PKK bases. During the operations, which also included members of the TSK Special Forces Unit, the regular forces backed the main units by performing mine sweeping. Reports say that the number of troops deployed along the border will not go below 50,000.

The Pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP) held a march to Mt. Cudi last week in an attempt to protest the projected military action.

http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detaylar.do?load=detay&link=134248

_____________________________________________________________

Comment:

Turkey is a long-time ally and servant of US, a member of NATO since 1952. It is being governed behind the scenes by pro-US and pro-Zionist generals.

Parties and governments have very little say. Turkish army has killed more than 30,000 people of Kurdish origin in Turkish Kurdistan between 1984 and 1999 and deported more than 2 millon Kurdish peasants from their homes and villages. Besides, Turkey has supported the invasion of Afghanistan, Iraq and Lebanon.

It has troops in Afghanistan, Lebanon and Northern Iraq. It supported the bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999, has troops in Kosovo and has recognized the ‘independence’ of pro-US semi-colony of Kosovo.

Turkey has oppressed and massacred its Armenan, Greek, Kurdish etc. minorities for decades with the support of imperialists, has expansionist ambitions which in general is in line with NATO policies.

It has invaded Northern Cyprus in 1974 with the support of US and Britain, who play the game o divide and rule between Greek and Turkish Cypriots.

We should be against the pro-US policies of Iraqi Kurds and oppose Barzani-Talabani cliques; this, however does not and cannot lead to the rejection of the right of Kurdish people for self-determination.

The same is true for the people of Kosovo. Such questions cannot be described in terms of black and white.

by marlenst

GEAB N°22 is available! Global systemic crisis /

September 2008 –

Phase of collapse of US real economy

 1929, people waiting to enter in the bank

- Public announcement GEAB N°22 (February 16, 2008) -

According to LEAP/E2020, the end of the third quarter of 2008 will be marked by a new tipping point in the unfolding of the global systemic crisis. At that time indeed, the cumulated impact of the various sequences of the crisis (see table below) will reach its maximum strength and affect decisively the very heart of the systems concerned, on the frontline of which the United States, epicentre of the current crisis. In the United States, this new tipping point will translate into a collapse of the real economy, final socio-economic stage of the serial bursting of the housing and financial bubbles (1) and of the pursuance of the US dollar fall. The collapse of US real economy means the virtual freeze of the American economic machinery: private and public bankruptcies in large numbers, companies and public services closing down massively (2),…

A revealing harbinger: from March 2008 onward, the US government will stop a service publishing its economic indicators due to budget restrictions (3). Those who read the GEAB N°2 (02/2006) and included Alert certainly keep in mind our anticipation which connected the upcoming fall of the US dollar with the US Fed’s decision to cease publishing the M3 indicator. This new decision is another clear sign that US leaders are now anticipating a very bleak economic outlook for their country.

Time perspective of the seven sequences of the impact phase of the global systemic crisis as anticipated since mid-2007 – Source LEAP/E2020, GEAB N°18 (10/2007)

In this 22nd issue of the GEAB, LEAP/E2020’s experts try in particular to anticipate very specifically what will come out of the collapse of the US real economy for the United States themselves and for the other regions of the world. Meanwhile our team presents five sets of strategic and operational recommendations helping to protect oneself from the upcoming deterioration of the global systemic crisis.On the occasion of the second anniversary of the publication of our famous “Global systemic crisis Alert” which toured the world in February 2006 (4), LEAP/E2020 wishes to remind that we are now resolutely stepping into an era with no historical precedent. Our researchers insisted on that many times in the last two years: any comparison with the previous crises of our modern economy would be fallacious. It is neither a “remake” of the 1929 crisis nor a repetition of the 1970s oil crises or 1987 stock market crisis. It is truly a global systemic crisis, that is to say a crisis affecting the entire planet and questioning the very foundations of the international system upon which the world was organised in the last decades.According to LEAP/E2020, it is also instructive to observe that, two years after the release of this « Alert » which at the time generated both the interest of millions of readers worldwide and the condescending irony of most « experts » and « managers » of the economic and financial spheres, everyone is now convinced that a crisis is truly happening, that it is really global, and for most people already that it could indeed be systemic. However, it is always a repeated astonishment for our team to see the degree of incapacity of these same experts and managers in understanding the specific nature of the phenomenon currently unfolding. According to them, this crisis would only be a usual crisis but bigger. As a matter of fact that’s how the financial media reflect the dominant interpretations of the ongoing crisis. According to our team, this approach is not only intellectually lazy (5), it is also morally guilty, because it has for a main consequence to prevent their readers (whether they are simple citizens, private investors or public or private organisation managers) from preparing for the upcoming shocks (6).

For this reason, in opposition to all what can be read in the mainstream media always eager to conceal the truth and serve the interests of those who rule them, LEAP/E2020 wishes to remind that it is first and foremost in the United States that the systemic crisis is taking an unprecedented shape (the « Very Great US Depression » as our team decided to call it in January 2007 (7)) because it is around this country, and this country alone, that the world got progressively organised after the second World War. The various issues of the GEAB extensively described this situation. In short, it appears to be useful to make clear that neither Europe nor Asia have a negative saving rate, a full-scale housing crisis throwing millions of citizens out of their homes, a free-falling currency, abysmal public and trade deficits, an economic recession and, on top of all this, a number of costly wars to finance.

Neither Asia nor Europe (or more precisely ‘nor the Eurozone’) will suffer the roughest, the most sustainable and the most negative impact of the ongoing crisis; but the United States will, as well as all the countries/economies strongly linked to the US (what our experts have decided to call “the American risk”) (8). A “decoupling” is indeed taking place between the US economy and the other large regions of the world. But “decoupling” does not mean “independence” and it is clear that, as anticipated by LEAP/E2020 for many months, Asia and Europe will be affected by the crisis. But « decoupling » entails that the evolution of the US economy and of the other large regions of the world are no longer synchronised, that Asia and Europe are now moving along courses no longer determined by the US economy.

The global systemic crisis is in fact the beginning of an economic « decoupling » between the US and the rest of the world, knowing that the non « decoupled » economies will be dragged down the US negative spiral.

US Self-Employment in a Steep Downturn – Source Bureau of Labor Statistics / Merril Lynch (shaded region represents period of US recession)

The cases of the housing (2006) and financial (2007) bubble-bursting are eloquent. Indeed, the large majority of operators (non-specialised in the concerned sector) discovered that « the party was over » a long time after the trend had reversed. During the entire reversal period (which usually lasts between 6 to 12 months at most), dominant stances kept repeating them that nothing was changing and that emerging worries had no reason to be; and later, that the problems would remain confined to the sector concerned and to the US only. All those who, in the US and elsewhere, listened to these arguments are bitterly regretful now that they are stuck with unmarketable houses (or about to be foreclosed) or now that they see the value of their assets crumble day after day (9).Concerning stock markets, our team has anticipated since October 2007 that international stocks would plummet by 20 to 60 percent according to the region in the course of the year 2008. Today, we must re-evaluate our anticipations as we estimate that losses will be even greater than that. Indeed, on the one hand, stock markets have already lost between 10 and 20 percent since the beginning of the year (10), and, on the other hand, the collapse of the real economy in the US by the end of Summer 2008 will drag down all stock markets. According to LEAP/E2020, international stock markets will probably drop by 50 percent in average compared to 2007 (including in the emerging countries) (11).This sort of re-evaluation is typical of the work of anticipation carried by LEAP/E2020. Month after month we try to distinguish which trends are growing and which are relenting in order to improve the accuracy of our evaluations. We do not strive to “be right” (12), not to “sell” or “promote” anything. We seek simply and without prejudice to describe in advance the consequences of the heavy trends at play in this 21st-century world, and to share with our readers what we think are the proper means to protect oneself from the most negative effects.

In this 22nd issue of the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin, with the alert we sound about a collapse of US real economy from September 2008 onward, we are trying again to warn those concerned that this major event will generate many very severe socio-political troubles in the United States (13) whose economy is truly on a tumbling course (14), a situation extremely likely to entail very heavy consequences for the financial and monetary markets, and for the world’s economy. We have not yet reached the heart of the crisis. According to LEAP/E2020, we will be there in the second semester of 2008.

———-
Notes:(1) A very instructive film was recently nominated at the Sundance Film Festival: I.O.U.S.A., directed by Patrick Creadon. As it follows the journey of David Walker, US Comptroller General (and therefore responsible for controlling federal public spending), during a series of conferences on the state of public expenditures throughout the country, this film shows the very direct impact of the current crisis on American citizens and the United States. The release of this film illustrates the fact that, in just a few months time, this crisis left the mere circles of experts and boardrooms of financial institutions to enter into the daily life of the US citizens.(2) In the past few days, the complete collapse of Municipal bonds (or « Munis ») illustrates the fact that the crisis is spreading to all the sectors of the US society. This collapse will freeze all public investment projects scheduled by local authorities in the US. It is one of the first big victims of the implosion of « bonds insurers » announced by LEAP/E2020 in the GEAB N°19. It also demonstrates the fact that large banks are now incapable of playing their role of financers of the country’s economic activity. Sources: Financial Times, 02/13/2008 & Bloomberg, 02/14/2008

(3) Source: EconomicIndicators.Gov, Economics & Statistics Administration, US Department of Commerce

(4) See GEAB N°2, 02/15/2006

(5) The first reason that may prevent those « experts » to conceive the « unconceivable », is not a matter of intelligence but a « commercial » problem. Indeed it would compel them to review most of their intellectual principles (their work hypotheses) and their business base (their « clients » would not appreciate to learn that they were on the wrong track all these years).

(6) On this subject, it is worth noticing the very straightforward speech made by the head of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, who recently warned his fellow citizens that the current crisis would downgrade significantly their living standards. Unfortunately, no US leader, including among the Democrats, is able to produce such a speech, knowing that their fellow citizens are hit even harder than the British. Source: The Telegraph, 02/14/2008.

(7) See GEAB N°11, 01/15/2007.

(8) In this 22nd issue of the GEAB, the LEAP/E2020 team gives a set of recommendations helping investors to assess themselves the « American risk » of a country, sector or investment.

(9) The same goes for all those who chose to listen to similar arguments telling them, along the years 2006 and 2007, that it was impossible for the EURUSD exchange rate to go above 1.30, then 1.40, and now 1.50… while waiting 1.70 at the end of the year 2008.

(10) Only « dream merchants » can still imagine that stock markets could improve by the end of the year, while the crisis is speeding up.

(11) It is worth reminding that in January 2008, in just a month, global stock markets saw USD 5,200 billion-worth go up in smoke. Source: China Daily News, 02/10/2008

(12) Even if our anticipations undeniably proved to be right in the past two years concerning the global systemic crisis.

(13) See ‘Sequence 6 : 2nd quarter 2007 – 4th quarter 2009 : « Very Great Depression » in the US, social unrest and growing influence of the army on public management, GEAB N°18, 10/15/2007

(14) Predictions about the failure of dozens of US banks in the coming two years illustrate the scope of upcoming difficulties. Source: Reuters, 02/01/2008

Crise systémique globale

/ Septembre 2008 –

Phase d’effondrement de l’économie réelle aux Etats-Unis

- Communiqué public GEAB N°22 (15 février 2008) -

Selon LEAP/E2020, la fin du 3° trimestre 2008 marquera un nouveau point d’inflexion dans le développement de la crise systémique globale. A cette date en effet, l’impact cumulé de l’ensemble des différentes séquences de la crise (voir tableau ci-dessous) attendra sa puissance maximale et affectera donc de manière décisive le coeur même des systèmes concernés, au premier rang desquels se trouvent les Etats-Unis, épicentre de la crise actuelle. Aux Etats-Unis, ce nouveau point d’inflexion se traduira par un effondrement de l’économie réelle, ultime étape socio-économique de l’explosion en série des bulles immobilières et financières (1) et de la poursuite de la chute de la valeur du Dollar. L’effondrement de l’économie réelle US représente tout simplement l’arrêt quasiment complet de la machine économique américaine : faillites privées et publiques en très grand nombre, fermetures massives d’entreprises et de services publics (2), …

Signe avant-coureur, il est intéressant de noter qu’à partir de Mars 2008, le gouvernement américain interrompra la publication de ses indices économiques pour des raisons de contraintes budgétaires (3). Les lecteurs du GEAB N°2 et de l’alerte connexe, gardent certainement en mémoire notre anticipation qui avait notamment corrélé la chute à venir du Dollar avec la fin de la publication de M3 par la Réserve fédérale US. Voici à notre avis un nouveau signal clair que les dirigeants américains s’attendent dorénavant à de bien sombres perspectives économiques pour leur pays.

Dans ce GEAB N°22, les experts de LEAP/E2020 tentent notamment d’anticiper les conséquences concrètes de cet effondrement de l’économie réelle américaine sur les Etats-Unis eux-mêmes, et sur les autres régions de la planète. Parallèlement, notre équipe développe une série de cinq recommandations stratégiques et opérationnelles pour se prémunir face à l’aggravation de la crise systémique globale des mois à venir.

A l’occasion du deuxième anniversaire de la publication de sa fameuse « Alerte crise systémique globale » qui avait fait le tour de la planète en Février 2006 (4), LEAP/E2020 souhaite néanmoins rappeler que nous entrons désormais de plain-pied dans une période sans aucun précédent historique. Comme l’a souligné à maintes reprises depuis deux ans notre équipe de chercheurs, les comparaisons avec les crises précédentes de l’économie moderne sont fallacieuses. Il ne s’agit en effet ni d’un « remake » de la crise de 1929 ni d’une répétition des crises pétrolières des années 1970 ou boursières de 1987. Il s’agit bel et bien d’une crise systémique globale, c’est-à-dire affectant l’intégralité de la planète et touchant directement aux fondements du système international qui sous-tend l’organisation planétaire depuis des décennies.

Pour LEAP/E2020, il est également édifiant de constater que deux ans après la publication de sa fameuse « Alerte crise systémique globale » qui avait simultanément suscité l’intérêt de millions de lecteurs dans le monde entier et l’ironie condescendante de la plupart des « experts » et « responsables » du monde économique et financier, tout le monde est désormais convaincu qu’il y a bien une crise, qu’elle est bien globale et pour la plupart qu’elle est peut-être bien systémique. Cependant, notre équipe reste toujours étonnée par l’incapacité qu’ont ces mêmes experts et responsables à appréhender la nature même du phénomène que nous vivons actuellement. A les lire, cette crise systémique globale ne serait qu’une sorte de crise, « classique » mais en plus « gros ». C’est ainsi que les médias financiers reflètent d’ailleurs les interprétations dominantes de la crise en cours. Pour notre équipe c’est là une démarche non seulement intellectuellement paresseuse (5) mais moralement coupable car elle a pour principale conséquence de ne pas permettre aux lecteurs (qu’ils soient simples citoyens, investisseurs individuels ou responsables d’institutions privées ou publiques) de se préparer aux chocs à venir (6).

Ainsi, contrairement à ce que l’on peut lire ces dernières semaines dans les médias dominants, toujours prompts à tenter de camoufler la réalité pour servir les intérêts qui les dominent, LEAP/E2020 souhaite rappeler que c’est avant tout aux Etats-Unis que cette crise systémique globale prend avant tout une forme sans précédent (la « Très Grande Dépression US » comme l’a appelée notre équipe dès Janvier 2007 (7)) puisque c’est autour d’eux, et d’eux seuls, que s’est progressivement organisé le monde issu de la Seconde Guerre Mondiale. Les différents numéros du GEAB ont largement expliqué cette situation. Pour résumer, nous jugeons utile de souligner que ce n’est ni l’Europe ni l’Asie qui ont un taux d’épargne négatif, une crise immobilière généralisée jetant à la rue des millions de citoyens, une devise en chute libre, des déficits publics et commerciaux abyssaux, une économie en récession et pour couronner le tout, des guerres coûteuses à financer.

Ce ne sont donc ni l’Asie ni l’Europe (plus exactement ‘la zone Euro’) qui subiront les conséquences les plus brutales, les plus durables et les plus négatives de la crise en cours ; mais bien les Etats-Unis et les pays/économies fortement corrélé(e)s aux Etats-Unis (ce que nos experts appellent désormais le « risque américain ») (8). Il y a bien en effet « découplage » entre l’économie US et celles des autres grandes régions du monde. Mais « découplage » ne signifie pas « indépendance ». Il est bien évident, comme l’a anticipé LEAP/E2020 depuis de nombreux mois, que l’Asie et l’Europe seront affectées par la crise. « Découplage » signifie en revanche que les évolutions de l’économie US et celles des autres grandes régions du monde ne sont désormais plus synchronisées, que l’Asie et l’Europe évolueront dorénavant selon des trajectoires qui ne seront plus déterminées par celles de l’économie US.

La crise systémique globale marque en fait le début du « découplage » entre l’économie US et celles du reste de la planète. Les économies non « découplées » seront d’ailleurs celles qui vont être entraînées dans la spirale négative américaine.

Les exemples d’explosion des bulles immobilière (2006) et financière (2007) sont éloquents. En effet, l’immense majorité des opérateurs (non-spécialistes du secteur concerné) a découvert que la « fête était finie » bien après le renversement de tendance. Durant toute la période de retournement (qui dure en général 6 mois à 1 an maximum), la parole dominante a continué à prétendre que rien ne changeait et que les incertitudes naissantes n’avaient aucune raison d’être ; puis, que les problèmes resteraient confinés au secteur concerné et aux seuls Etats-Unis. Ceux, aux Etats-Unis et dans le reste du monde, qui ont écouté ce discours s’en mordent les doigts aujourd’hui car ils sont désormais prisonniers de maisons invendables (ou en passe d’être saisies) ou voient chaque jour un peu plus que la veille la valeur de leurs actions s’effriter (9).

Concernant les marchés boursiers, notre équipe avait anticipé dès Octobre 2007 que les bourses mondiales perdraient entre 20% et 60% selon les régions au cours de l’année 2008. Aujourd’hui, nous devons réévaluer nos anticipations en direction d’une baisse encore plus forte puisque, d’une part, les places boursières ont en général déjà perdu entre 10% et 20% depuis le début de l’année (1°), et que, d’autre part, l’effondrement de l’économie réelle aux Etats-Unis d’ici la fin de l’été 2008 va entraîner toutes les bourses mondiales dans une spirale infernale. Pour LEAP/E2020, c’est vers une baisse de 50% en moyenne par rapport à 2007 que s’orientent désormais les bourses mondiales (y compris dans les pays émergents) (11).

Ce type de réévaluation est typique du travail d’anticipation réalisé par LEAP/E2020. Nous cherchons chaque mois à discerner les tendances qui se renforcent ou au contraire s’affaiblissent afin d’en tirer les conséquences nécessaires pour améliorer la pertinence de nos évaluations. Nous ne cherchons pas à « avoir raison » (12), à « vendre » ou « promouvoir » quoi que ce soit. Nous cherchons simplement et sans a priori à décrire à l’avance les conséquences concrètes des grandes tendances à l’oeuvre dans notre monde du début du XXI° siècle et à faire part à nos lecteurs des moyens permettant de se prémunir des conséquences les plus négatives.

Dans ce numéro 22 du Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin, avec notamment notre alerte sur l’effondrement de l’économie réelle aux Etats-Unis à partir de Septembre 2008, nous tentons à nouveau de prévenir ceux qui sont concernés par les conséquences de cet événement majeur qui va générer des troubles socio-politiques très graves aux Etats-Unis (13) dont l’économie est véritablement en train de s’écrouler (14), ce qui aura bien entendu des retombées très lourdes sur l’ensemble des marchés financiers et monétaires et pour l’économie mondiale. Nous n’avons toujours pas atteint le coeur de la crise. Selon LEAP/E2020, il sera atteint dans la deuxième moitié de 2008.
———
Notes:

(1) Un film très instructif vient d’être présenté au Sundance Film Festival : I.O.U.S.A., réalisé par Patrick Creadon. En suivant le parcours de David Walker), US Comptroller General (et à ce titre en charge de contrôler les dépenses publiques du gouvernement fédéral), à l’occasion d’une série de conférences à travers les Etats-Unis sur l’état des finances publiques du pays, ce film traite de manière très directe des conséquences de la crise actuelle sur les Etats-Unis et les Américains. Sa sortie illustre combien en quelques mois la crise est sortie des débats d’expert et des conseils d’administration d’établissements financiers pour entrer dans la vie quotidienne des Américains.

(2) L’effondrement complet ces derniers jours du marché des obligations municipales américaines (les « Munis ») illustre la diffusion de la crise à tous les secteurs de la société américaine. Il représente un coup d’arrêt aux projets d’investissement public de l’ensemble des collectivités territoriales des Etats-Unis. Il est l’une des premières grandes victimes de l’implosion des « bonds insurers » qu’avait anticipée LEAP/E2020 dans le GEAB N°19. Et il démontre à nouveau combien les grandes banques sont désormais incapables de continuer à jouer leur rôle de financement de l’activité économique du pays. Sources : Financial Times, 13/02/2008 / Bloomberg, 14/02/2008

(3) Source : EconomicIndicators.Gov, Economics & Statistics Administration, US Department of Commerce

(4) Voir GEAB N°2, 15/02/2006

(5) La première raison qui empêche les « experts » de penser « l’impensable », ça n’est pas une question d’intelligence ; mais un problème « commercial ». En effet, cela les obligerait à revoir l’essentiel de leur « fonds de commerce » intellectuel (notamment leurs hypothèses traditionnelles de travail) et commercial (leurs « clients » n’apprécieraient pas de s’entendre dire qu’ils faisaient fausse route toutes ces dernières années).

(6) A ce sujet, soulignons le discours direct et sans fioriture de Mervyn King, patron de la banque centrale britannique, qui vient de prévenir ses concitoyens que la crise actuelle allait provoquer une baisse significative de leur niveau de vie. C’est un discours qu’hélas aucun dirigeant américain, y compris chez les Démocrates, ne semble prêt à tenir au peuple américain alors qu’il sera encore plus touché que le peuple britannique. Source : The Telegraph, 14/02/2008.

(7) Voir GEAB N°11, 15/01/2007.

(8) Dans ce numéro 22 du GEAB, l’équipe de LEAP/E2020 donne d’ailleurs une série de conseils pour aider les investisseurs à évaluer eux-mêmes le « risque américain » des différents pays, secteurs ou placements.

(9) Il en est de même pour tous ceux qui ont choisi d’écouter les discours dominants qui, tout au long des années 2006 et 2007, prétendaient impossible la montée du taux de change EURUSD vers 1,30, puis 1,40, puis désormais 1,50 … en attendant les 1,70 pour la fin 2008.

(10) Seuls les « marchands de rêve » peuvent encore imaginer un redressement boursier d’ici la fin de cette année, car la crise va aller s’accélérant.

(11) Il est utile de rappeler qu’en Janvier 2008, en un seul mois, les bourses mondiales ont vu disparaître en fumée 5.200 milliards USD. Source : China Daily News, 10/02/2008

(12) Même si indéniablement nous avons eu raison ces deux dernières années en ce qui concerne la crise systémique globale.

(13) Voir ‘Séquence 6 : 2° Trimestre 2007 – 4° Trimestre 2009 : « Très Grande Dépression » aux Etats-Unis, crise sociale et montée en puissance des militaires dans la gestion du pays’, GEAB N°18, 15/10/2007

(14) Les prévisions concernant les faillites de dizaines de banques aux Etats-Unis dans les deux ans à venir illustrent l’ampleur des problèmes à venir. Source : Reuters, 01/02/2008

Source:

http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-22

U.S. troops erect walls in Mosul as inhabitants flee

By Samer SaeedAzzaman, February 19, 2008

U.S. and Iraqi troops are carrying out military operations in heavily populated areas of the northern city of Mosul to flush out insurgents.

And in their bid they are separating and isolating residential quarters with security barriers and walls making movement rather difficult.

Some quarters like Yarmouk, Thawar and Siha are completed isolated.

The city, Iraq’s second largest with nearly three million people, has turned into a major stronghold for the Iraqi branch of Qaeda and anti-U.S. rebels.

But provincial officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, say the Qaeda and other groups opposing U.S. occupation have either fled or merged with the population.

With no guarantees given that the troops would not repeat the mistake committed in other rebel cities in the subjugation of which the U.S. employed warplanes and heavy artillery, tens of thousands of residents are fleeing to safer areas.

The government has not said how long the military operation would continue.

http://www.azzaman.com/english/index.asp?fname=news%5C2008-02-17%5Ckurd.htm

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Where’s the Decisive Battle for Mosul?
 

By: Time on: 18.02.2008

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has vowed to wage a “decisive battle” against insurgents in Mosul, which U.S. and Iraqi officials say is their last urban haven.

But U.S. forces trying to stamp out insurgent networks in that city lack a major boon the surge effort has had elsewhere in Iraq over the past year: Local volunteer fighters.

Col. Michael Bills, the commander for U.S. forces in Mosul, has ruled out using so-called Concerned Local Citizens (CLC), bands of irregulars working alongside American and Iraqi troops in parts of Baghdad, Anbar Province and other areas of Iraq. “You got such a melting pot it’s difficult to even fathom trying to do a CLC up here,” Bills said of the Mosul area, where the population is complex mix of Iraq’s ethnic and sectarian groups. The territory around Mosul has long been home to Kurds, Sunnis, Christians, Shi’ites, Yazidis and Turkmens. Bills fears any efforts to organize volunteer fighters to set against insurgents could backfire, igniting tensions among the disparate communities. “What ethnic group do you go after?” Bills said. “You just can’t start something like that, because I think tensions will start between different CLC groups.”

The absence in Mosul of local volunteers, who are typically paid about $300 per month by U.S. forces elsewhere in Iraq, means American troops have more difficulty finding insurgents in the population. One of the most valuable things such fighters brought to the table over the past year across Iraq is a knowledge of who exactly the insurgents in their areas were. U.S. military officials estimate that roughly 300 hard-core fighters operate in Mosul, chiefly on the predominately Sunnni west side of the city. Attacks there are 50% higher than elsewhere in Mosul, according to Lt. Col. Michael Simmering, a commander at the main U.S. outpost in Mosul, Forward Operating Base Marez. But so far U.S. and Iraqi forces have failed to rein in the fighters, who stage daily attacks around the city. “The insurgents do have the ability to move around the city freely,” said Simmering.

U.S. officials are hoping Iraqi security forces are able to accomplish on their own what volunteer fighters have against the insurgency in places like Anbar Province, where a confederation of tribesmen turned against al-Qaeda in Iraq and began fighting alongside U.S. troops. An estimated 9,000 Iraqi army troops are in Mosul working with some 1,400 American soldiers. Additionally, about 9,000 Iraqi police are in the city as well. But so far Iraqi security forces have yet to make a significant display of force in Mosul.

Iraqi Defense Minister Abdel Qader Jassim Mohammed recently visited the city recently and expressed concern that Iraqi security forces were disorganized and abandoning the streets at night. U.S. troops continue to work with Iraqi security forces to establish jointly manned checkpoints and outposts in Mosul. U.S. troops are also helping Iraqi army and police to chase down insurgents with regular raids around the city. But few American soldiers feel a major offensive by the Iraqis on Mosul is imminent. Most are preparing for a long campaign that may not bring visible gains until the summer. “This is going to happen over a period of months,” Simmering said.

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1713775,00.html?xid=rss-world